Papers are published when they are finished, not on a schedule. Each one states what was forecast, what happened, and what the method got wrong as well as right.
Paper 2026/02 · Hamish Paton · Public services · 4 Sep 2026 · 9 pages
Eighteen editions since 2008, every central projection scored against what happened at every horizon. The projections have been too high at every horizon, and a forecaster who assumed no change would have beaten them on identical targets.
Version 1.0 · CC BY 4.0
Paper 2026/01 · Hamish Paton · Public services · 5 Sep 2026 · 4 pages
A quarterly composite series of the people whose liberty is conditioned by the criminal justice system: in prison, under supervision, or waiting for a courtroom. It has grown by a quarter since 2019, and almost all of the growth is in the queue.
Version 1.0 · CC BY 4.0
Download the PDF · doi:10.5281/zenodo.22536356 · Related forecasts