walkforwardResearch
Notes

Occasional write-ups

Method, results, and the entries that went badly. Published when there is something to say, not on a schedule.

September 2026

Before the first entry

This site went up before there was anything on it, which is deliberate. A record only means something if the page existed before the results did — otherwise there is no way to know which results were quietly left off. So the ledger starts empty, the scoring rules are written down first, and the first entries are registered in the public repository from September.

From then on the deal is simple: every forecast is timestamped before the outcome is known, scored against the number it set out to beat, and never edited afterwards. Some will be wrong. Those stay up too — they are the point.